KA Candidate Detail

Performance Summary

Short Term Return

-5.01%

Long Baseline

22.56%

Short Baseline

-22.96%

Price Return

22.76%

Projection Windows

20

Avg Long Avg Short L 12 · S 7 · P 20 Avg Price Reference 113,967.080000

This Pattern

Snapshot of the exact candle window, pattern settings, and outcomes recorded below.

Window Length (candles) 216

Training Slice 2024-07-05 13:00 → 2024-07-23 11:00

Price Range 54,528.000000 → 66,938.200000

Baseline Comparison L 22.56% | S -22.96% | Δ 22.76%

The synthetic pattern takes this window, produces the short-term return above, and then projects forward using the same window size to build the trajectory below.

How to Trade This Pattern

Guidelines derived from the pattern and baseline relationship. Adjust to your own risk management.

Entry Idea Short bias: pattern trails the short baseline. Look for a rejection near the window high.

Exit Idea For short trades, cover if the short baseline flips positive or projections tighten above zero.

Risk Guide Position sizing: use the baseline return magnitude as the expected move and cap risk to a fraction of that.

Bias Slight short edge: pattern beats short baseline more than long.

Strategy Notes

These figures describe how the synthetic pattern compares with simple buy-and-hold baselines for the same window.

— How this snapshot is built:

Take a recent slice of candles and compute the synthetic pattern return.
Measure what a simple long, a simple short, and the raw price move did on the same slice.
Walk forward through the next slices to see how the asset kept moving.

Pattern vs. long baseline: -27.57%
Pattern vs. short baseline: 17.95%
Asset price change on window: 22.76%
Projection windows keeping long baseline positive: 12 | short baseline positive: 7 | price positive: 20
Average projection returns — long: 3.11%, short: -3.51%, price: 61.82%

Slight short edge: pattern beats short baseline more than long.

Read the full KA evaluation documentation

Performance Trajectory

Short-term synthetic strategy vs. long/short baselines over subsequent windows.

Metadata

Packets 23845

Score -0.050061

Created 2025-09-29 19:15:15

Updated 2025-09-29 19:15:15

interval 2h

packets 23845

start_index 18429

window_size 216

start_time 1720173600000

end_index 18644

end_time 1721721600000

short_term_return -0.050061

comparison_count 20

comparison_long_positive 12

comparison_short_positive 7

comparison_long_average 0.031063

comparison_short_average -0.035063

comparison_price_positive 20

comparison_price_average 0.618215

price_return 0.22759316314554

Projection Windows

Pair	Interval	Window	Long Return	Short Return	Period
BTC_USDT	2h	216	-9.23%	8.83%	2024-07-23 13:00 → 2024-08-10 11:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	-1.34%	0.94%	2024-08-10 13:00 → 2024-08-28 11:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	-0.51%	0.11%	2024-08-28 13:00 → 2024-09-15 11:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	0.97%	-1.37%	2024-09-15 13:00 → 2024-10-03 11:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	12.41%	-12.81%	2024-10-03 13:00 → 2024-10-21 11:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	10.87%	-11.27%	2024-10-21 13:00 → 2024-11-08 10:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	22.94%	-23.34%	2024-11-08 12:00 → 2024-11-26 10:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	8.39%	-8.79%	2024-11-26 12:00 → 2024-12-14 10:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	-8.21%	7.81%	2024-12-14 12:00 → 2025-01-01 10:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	12.52%	-12.92%	2025-01-01 12:00 → 2025-01-19 10:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	-6.55%	6.15%	2025-01-19 12:00 → 2025-02-06 10:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	-3.09%	2.69%	2025-02-06 12:00 → 2025-02-24 10:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	-13.76%	13.36%	2025-02-24 12:00 → 2025-03-14 10:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	1.72%	-2.12%	2025-03-14 12:00 → 2025-04-01 11:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	0.95%	-1.35%	2025-04-01 13:00 → 2025-04-19 11:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	13.45%	-13.85%	2025-04-19 13:00 → 2025-05-07 11:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	10.27%	-10.67%	2025-05-07 13:00 → 2025-05-25 11:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	0.15%	-0.55%	2025-05-25 13:00 → 2025-06-12 11:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	-0.23%	-0.17%	2025-06-12 13:00 → 2025-06-30 11:00
BTC_USDT	2h	216	10.40%	-10.80%	2025-06-30 13:00 → 2025-07-18 11:00

Raw Payloads

Metadata JSON

{"interval": "2h", "packets": 23845, "start_index": 18429, "window_size": 216, "start_time": 1720173600000, "end_index": 18644, "end_time": 1721721600000, "short_term_return": -0.050061, "comparison_count": 20, "comparison_long_positive": 12, "comparison_short_positive": 7, "comparison_long_average": 0.031063, "comparison_short_average": -0.035063, "comparison_price_positive": 20, "comparison_price_average": 0.618215, "price_return": 0.22759316314553985}

Reasoning JSON

{"short_term_return": -0.050061, "long_return": 0.225593, "short_return": -0.229593, "price_return": 0.227593, "comparison_count": 20, "comparison_long_positive": 12, "comparison_short_positive": 7, "comparison_long_average": 0.031063, "comparison_short_average": -0.035063, "comparison_price_average": 0.618215}

Simulation JSON

{"start_time": 1720173600000, "end_time": 1721721600000, "window_size": 216, "trades_executed": 5, "commission": 0.001, "short_term_return": -0.050061, "long_return": 0.225593, "short_return": -0.229593, "base_start_price": 54528.0, "base_end_price": 66938.2, "comparison": [{"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": -0.092258, "short_return": 0.088258, "price_return": 0.116793, "start_time": 1721728800000, "end_time": 1723276800000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": -0.013435, "short_return": 0.009435, "price_return": 0.104022, "start_time": 1723284000000, "end_time": 1724832000000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": -0.005058, "short_return": 0.001058, "price_return": 0.100646, "start_time": 1724839200000, "end_time": 1726387200000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.009738, "short_return": -0.013738, "price_return": 0.113565, "start_time": 1726394400000, "end_time": 1727942400000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.124111, "short_return": -0.128111, "price_return": 0.253998, "start_time": 1727949600000, "end_time": 1729497600000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.108704, "short_return": -0.112704, "price_return": 0.39282, "start_time": 1729504800000, "end_time": 1731052800000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.229369, "short_return": -0.233369, "price_return": 0.715075, "start_time": 1731060000000, "end_time": 1732608000000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.083882, "short_return": -0.087882, "price_return": 0.862369, "start_time": 1732615200000, "end_time": 1734163200000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": -0.082139, "short_return": 0.078139, "price_return": 0.713121, "start_time": 1734170400000, "end_time": 1735718400000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.125249, "short_return": -0.129249, "price_return": 0.931114, "start_time": 1735725600000, "end_time": 1737273600000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": -0.065489, "short_return": 0.061489, "price_return": 0.80851, "start_time": 1737280800000, "end_time": 1738828800000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": -0.030887, "short_return": 0.026887, "price_return": 0.756268, "start_time": 1738836000000, "end_time": 1740384000000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": -0.137636, "short_return": 0.133636, "price_return": 0.518055, "start_time": 1740391200000, "end_time": 1741939200000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.017154, "short_return": -0.021154, "price_return": 0.547132, "start_time": 1741946400000, "end_time": 1743494400000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.009452, "short_return": -0.013452, "price_return": 0.56485, "start_time": 1743501600000, "end_time": 1745049600000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.134535, "short_return": -0.138535, "price_return": 0.778506, "start_time": 1745056800000, "end_time": 1746604800000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.102696, "short_return": -0.106696, "price_return": 0.964709, "start_time": 1746612000000, "end_time": 1748160000000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.001507, "short_return": -0.005507, "price_return": 0.971599, "start_time": 1748167200000, "end_time": 1749715200000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": -0.002266, "short_return": -0.001734, "price_return": 0.971075, "start_time": 1749722400000, "end_time": 1751270400000}, {"trading_pair": "BTC_USDT", "interval": "2h", "window_size": 216, "long_return": 0.104032, "short_return": -0.108032, "price_return": 1.180073, "start_time": 1751277600000, "end_time": 1752825600000}]}