PATTERN-4403
Performance Summary
Short Term Return
-4.60%
Long Baseline
8.13%
Short Baseline
-8.53%
Price Return
8.33%
Projection Windows
3
Avg Long
Avg Short
L 0 · S 3 · P 1
Avg Price
Reference 4,145.230000
This Pattern
Snapshot of the exact candle window, pattern settings, and outcomes recorded below.
244
2025-09-09 02:00 → 2025-09-14 03:30
4,311.140000 → 4,670.270000
L 8.13% | S -8.53% | Δ 8.33%
The synthetic pattern takes this window, produces the short-term return above, and then projects forward using the same window size to build the trajectory below.
How to Trade This Pattern
Guidelines derived from the pattern and baseline relationship. Adjust to your own risk management.
Short bias: pattern trails the short baseline. Look for a rejection near the window high.
For short trades, cover if the short baseline flips positive or projections tighten above zero.
Position sizing: use the baseline return magnitude as the expected move and cap risk to a fraction of that.
Slight short edge: pattern beats short baseline more than long.
Strategy Notes
These figures describe how the synthetic pattern compares with simple buy-and-hold baselines for the same window.
- Take a recent slice of candles and compute the synthetic pattern return.
- Measure what a simple long, a simple short, and the raw price move did on the same slice.
- Walk forward through the next slices to see how the asset kept moving.
- Pattern vs. long baseline: -12.73%
- Pattern vs. short baseline: 3.93%
- Asset price change on window: 8.33%
- Projection windows keeping long baseline positive: 0 | short baseline positive: 3 | price positive: 1
- Average projection returns — long: -4.38%, short: 3.98%, price: -0.82%
Slight short edge: pattern beats short baseline more than long.
Performance Trajectory
Metadata
Projection Windows
| Pair | Interval | Window | Long Return | Short Return | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH_USDT | 30m | 244 | -1.94% | 1.54% | 2025-09-14 04:00 → 2025-09-19 05:30 |
| ETH_USDT | 30m | 244 | -9.96% | 9.56% | 2025-09-19 06:00 → 2025-09-24 07:30 |
| ETH_USDT | 30m | 244 | -1.25% | 0.85% | 2025-09-24 08:00 → 2025-09-29 09:30 |
Raw Payloads
Metadata JSON
{"interval": "30m", "packets": 8956, "start_index": 7959, "window_size": 244, "start_time": 1757372400000, "end_index": 8202, "end_time": 1757809800000, "short_term_return": -0.046011, "comparison_count": 3, "comparison_long_positive": 0, "comparison_short_positive": 3, "comparison_long_average": -0.043841, "comparison_short_average": 0.039841, "comparison_price_positive": 1, "comparison_price_average": -0.008163, "price_return": 0.08330279230087635}
Reasoning JSON
{"short_term_return": -0.046011, "long_return": 0.081303, "short_return": -0.085303, "price_return": 0.083303, "comparison_count": 3, "comparison_long_positive": 0, "comparison_short_positive": 3, "comparison_long_average": -0.043841, "comparison_short_average": 0.039841, "comparison_price_average": -0.008163}
Simulation JSON
{"start_time": 1757372400000, "end_time": 1757809800000, "window_size": 244, "trades_executed": 4, "commission": 0.001, "short_term_return": -0.046011, "long_return": 0.081303, "short_return": -0.085303, "base_start_price": 4311.14, "base_end_price": 4670.27, "comparison": [{"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 244, "long_return": -0.01938, "short_return": 0.01538, "price_return": 0.064475, "start_time": 1757811600000, "end_time": 1758249000000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 244, "long_return": -0.099599, "short_return": 0.095599, "price_return": -0.039416, "start_time": 1758250800000, "end_time": 1758688200000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 244, "long_return": -0.012545, "short_return": 0.008545, "price_return": -0.049548, "start_time": 1758690000000, "end_time": 1759127400000}]}