KA Candidate Detail

Performance Summary

Short Term Return

-4.85%

Long Baseline

5.12%

Short Baseline

-5.52%

Price Return

5.32%

Projection Windows

15

Avg Long Avg Short L 9 · S 6 · P 15 Avg Price Reference 4,145.230000

This Pattern

Snapshot of the exact candle window, pattern settings, and outcomes recorded below.

Window Length (candles) 272

Training Slice 2025-06-27 11:30 → 2025-07-03 03:00

Price Range 2,438.140000 → 2,567.780000

Baseline Comparison L 5.12% | S -5.52% | Δ 5.32%

The synthetic pattern takes this window, produces the short-term return above, and then projects forward using the same window size to build the trajectory below.

How to Trade This Pattern

Guidelines derived from the pattern and baseline relationship. Adjust to your own risk management.

Entry Idea Short bias: pattern trails the short baseline. Look for a rejection near the window high.

Exit Idea For short trades, cover if the short baseline flips positive or projections tighten above zero.

Risk Guide Position sizing: use the baseline return magnitude as the expected move and cap risk to a fraction of that.

Bias Slight short edge: pattern beats short baseline more than long.

Strategy Notes

These figures describe how the synthetic pattern compares with simple buy-and-hold baselines for the same window.

— How this snapshot is built:

Take a recent slice of candles and compute the synthetic pattern return.
Measure what a simple long, a simple short, and the raw price move did on the same slice.
Walk forward through the next slices to see how the asset kept moving.

Pattern vs. long baseline: -9.97%
Pattern vs. short baseline: 0.66%
Asset price change on window: 5.32%
Projection windows keeping long baseline positive: 9 | short baseline positive: 6 | price positive: 15
Average projection returns — long: 3.07%, short: -3.47%, price: 64.20%

Slight short edge: pattern beats short baseline more than long.

Read the full KA evaluation documentation

Performance Trajectory

Short-term synthetic strategy vs. long/short baselines over subsequent windows.

Metadata

Packets 8956

Score -0.048530

Created 2025-09-29 19:15:16

Updated 2025-09-29 19:15:16

interval 30m

packets 8956

start_index 4426

window_size 272

start_time 1751013000000

end_index 4697

end_time 1751500800000

short_term_return -0.04853

comparison_count 15

comparison_long_positive 9

comparison_short_positive 6

comparison_long_average 0.030663

comparison_short_average -0.034663

comparison_price_positive 15

comparison_price_average 0.641992

price_return 0.053171680051187

Projection Windows

Pair	Interval	Window	Long Return	Short Return	Period
ETH_USDT	30m	272	0.13%	-0.53%	2025-07-03 03:30 → 2025-07-08 19:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	17.26%	-17.66%	2025-07-08 19:30 → 2025-07-14 11:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	18.12%	-18.52%	2025-07-14 11:30 → 2025-07-20 03:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	1.20%	-1.60%	2025-07-20 03:30 → 2025-07-25 19:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	6.34%	-6.74%	2025-07-25 19:30 → 2025-07-31 11:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	-7.32%	6.92%	2025-07-31 11:30 → 2025-08-06 03:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	20.93%	-21.33%	2025-08-06 03:30 → 2025-08-11 19:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	2.59%	-2.99%	2025-08-11 19:30 → 2025-08-17 11:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	7.59%	-7.99%	2025-08-17 11:30 → 2025-08-23 03:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	-6.39%	5.99%	2025-08-23 03:30 → 2025-08-28 19:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	-4.63%	4.23%	2025-08-28 19:30 → 2025-09-03 11:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	-0.70%	0.30%	2025-09-03 11:30 → 2025-09-09 03:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	6.93%	-7.33%	2025-09-09 03:30 → 2025-09-14 19:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	-3.06%	2.66%	2025-09-14 19:30 → 2025-09-20 11:00
ETH_USDT	30m	272	-12.98%	12.58%	2025-09-20 11:30 → 2025-09-26 03:00

Raw Payloads

Metadata JSON

{"interval": "30m", "packets": 8956, "start_index": 4426, "window_size": 272, "start_time": 1751013000000, "end_index": 4697, "end_time": 1751500800000, "short_term_return": -0.04853, "comparison_count": 15, "comparison_long_positive": 9, "comparison_short_positive": 6, "comparison_long_average": 0.030663, "comparison_short_average": -0.034663, "comparison_price_positive": 15, "comparison_price_average": 0.641992, "price_return": 0.0531716800511867}

Reasoning JSON

{"short_term_return": -0.04853, "long_return": 0.051172, "short_return": -0.055172, "price_return": 0.053172, "comparison_count": 15, "comparison_long_positive": 9, "comparison_short_positive": 6, "comparison_long_average": 0.030663, "comparison_short_average": -0.034663, "comparison_price_average": 0.641992}

Simulation JSON

{"start_time": 1751013000000, "end_time": 1751500800000, "window_size": 272, "trades_executed": 5, "commission": 0.001, "short_term_return": -0.04853, "long_return": 0.051172, "short_return": -0.055172, "base_start_price": 2438.14, "base_end_price": 2567.78, "comparison": [{"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": 0.001345, "short_return": -0.005345, "price_return": 0.056695, "start_time": 1751502600000, "end_time": 1751990400000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": 0.172567, "short_return": -0.176567, "price_return": 0.241159, "start_time": 1751992200000, "end_time": 1752480000000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": 0.181245, "short_return": -0.185245, "price_return": 0.468595, "start_time": 1752481800000, "end_time": 1752969600000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": 0.011986, "short_return": -0.015986, "price_return": 0.489135, "start_time": 1752971400000, "end_time": 1753459200000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": 0.063378, "short_return": -0.067378, "price_return": 0.586488, "start_time": 1753461000000, "end_time": 1753948800000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": -0.073245, "short_return": 0.069245, "price_return": 0.473459, "start_time": 1753950600000, "end_time": 1754438400000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": 0.209299, "short_return": -0.213299, "price_return": 0.784799, "start_time": 1754440200000, "end_time": 1754928000000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": 0.025866, "short_return": -0.029866, "price_return": 0.834538, "start_time": 1754929800000, "end_time": 1755417600000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": 0.075878, "short_return": -0.079878, "price_return": 0.977413, "start_time": 1755419400000, "end_time": 1755907200000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": -0.063899, "short_return": 0.059899, "price_return": 0.855012, "start_time": 1755909000000, "end_time": 1756396800000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": -0.046336, "short_return": 0.042336, "price_return": 0.772769, "start_time": 1756398600000, "end_time": 1756886400000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": -0.007048, "short_return": 0.003048, "price_return": 0.76382, "start_time": 1756888200000, "end_time": 1757376000000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": 0.069298, "short_return": -0.073298, "price_return": 0.889572, "start_time": 1757377800000, "end_time": 1757865600000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": -0.030639, "short_return": 0.026639, "price_return": 0.835457, "start_time": 1757867400000, "end_time": 1758355200000}, {"trading_pair": "ETH_USDT", "interval": "30m", "window_size": 272, "long_return": -0.129754, "short_return": 0.125754, "price_return": 0.60097, "start_time": 1758357000000, "end_time": 1758844800000}]}